Crypto runs on claims: momentum works, this market is beatable, that indicator predicts the top. We put them on trial against real data and publish the verdict — starting with the ones about our own model. Every exhibit shows its work.
Momentum has no edge on daily crypto — over two years, it's a coin flip.
We backtested the exact model that posts on this site across two years and eleven coins — 7,023 graded calls. The honest result is 49.2%, a coin flip. Here's the evidence, the cross-examination, and why we're publishing it about our own work.
A coin flip, taxed every fifteen minutes. The house edge is structural.
Kalshi lets you bet on Bitcoin's direction every fifteen minutes, around the clock. We pulled the real market and the real price data. The verdict is a coin flip you pay a toll to play — ninety-six times a day.
"Be greedy when others are fearful" didn't work. The index describes the mood; it doesn't call the turn.
The crypto Fear & Greed Index is everywhere, and the folk wisdom is to buy when it screams fear. We tested two years of readings against what Bitcoin actually did next. The verdict is a mirror, not a crystal ball.
Buying any red day does nothing. Buying deep capitulation might — but the sample's too thin to bank on.
"Buy the dip" is the most repeated advice in crypto. We tested it on two years of Bitcoin. Buying a red day is a coin flip — but buying after a real washout showed a flicker of something. Here's the honest, unfinished answer.
The price gap between exchanges is real — and about fifty times too small to survive the fees.
Bitcoin costs slightly different amounts on different exchanges, so buy low and sell high — free money, right? This site literally began as an arbitrage bot. Here's why that bot never printed, in one table.
Every verdict here is backed by the same public, graded record — nothing asserted that isn't shown.